Weekly Corn Market Update 12/31/21
December 2022 (Dec22) corn futures (the benchmark for 2022 corn production) finished the week lower by 7.50-cents (~1.36%), settling at $5.4600/bushel. This week's price action took place in a 15.50-cent (~2.80%) range. The weekly low of $5.4375 per bushel was 2.00-cents above the lower notable level we published last week.
This week, our corn demand index (CDI) rose 1.63% - outperforming Dec22 corn futures for the second straight week. Concerns over COVID-19 in the U.S. continue to drag on. The potential for problems elsewhere in the world and from new strains remains. Uncertain executive branch policy, tensions with China, potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and its impact on the Dollar remain significant concerns. We believe these factors will continue to provide potential sources of volatility for the foreseeable future. Increased input costs for corn production are likely to impact acreage decisions this year, representing a significant upside risk.
Dec22 corn futures remain in a long-term uptrend supported by a trendline connecting the lows of 03/31/21 and 09/10/21. Additionally, significant support rests below the market between $5.25 and $5.30 per bushel. Most daily and weekly momentum indicators are in neutral territory. Notably, Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are squeezing, which could indicate a potential breakout (up or down) from the trading range that has dominated trading for most of the past two months. Carry spreads from Dec22 to Mar23, May23, and Jul23 widened this week.
Implied volatilities for the 2022 crop remain high relative to recent years before the 2021 crop year. Near-term options rose this week, likely anticipating the USDA releasing various monthly, quarterly and annual crop data on January 12th. We would not be surprised to see further strength in near-term options next week. We continue to believe that the Dec22 options series represents the best value for long-term hedgers. See the charts below for more details. One compares our closing at-the-money model volatilities for this week and last. The other compares our current model volatilities with the forward volatilities they imply between consecutive expirations.
Looking ahead to next week's trading in Dec22 corn futures, we would consider movement within the $5.3350-$5.6025 per bushel range to be unremarkable. Notable moves would extend to the $5.1825-$5.7900 per bushel range. Price action beyond that would be extreme. A chart of these levels will return after the new year. Be sure to visit our Twitter page to vote in the poll we hold there each week. While you are there, please give us a follow.
This week's median Fall Price estimate is $5.1900 per bushel, with a mode between $4.90 and $4.95 per bushel. The median spring price estimate is $5.4300 per bushel, with a mode between $5.30 and $5.35 per bushel. Both distributions shifted lower this week because of the selloff.
We have done small amounts of hedging for our Quartzite Precision Marketing customers for the 2022 season. Mainly, we have recommended cash contracting portions of 2022 production as producers lock in their input costs. Additionally, we have made small purchases of put options as market liquidity allows. We again added a few puts in short-dated March and short-dated April this week. We believe, even despite the uptrend in Dec22 corn futures, producers should protect their investment in expensive inputs with a disciplined and flexible risk management strategy. Now is the time to consider your 2022 marketing plan. If you have any questions or want to learn more about what we do, please reach out. We are always happy to chat about the markets, and there is no obligation.
Happy New Year!#AgTwitter & #oatt - cast your vote in this week's poll, then click over to read our Weekly #Corn #Market Update:https://t.co/Y3NmJBaCxq
— Quartzite Risk Management LLC (@QuartziteRMLLC) January 1, 2022
We think these scenarios are equally likely for next week. Where will Dec22 corn #futures settle?
Thanks for taking the time to read. We look forward to your questions and feedback. Thanks again. Have a great week.
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Corn Demand Index
(Weekly Price Level Charts will return next week)
As a reminder, the Quartzite Risk Management Corn Demand Index references the weekly change in April 2023 futures for Crude Oil, Live Cattle and Lean Hogs. We weigh the percentage change in those contracts and compute the index's percentage change. Crude Oil accounts for 50% of the index, and Live Cattle and Lean Hogs each make up 25%. To create the chart, we started the index at the Dec22 corn futures settlement on 11/12/21; then added or subtracted the index's weekly percentage change. We want to add a few warnings. First, there are only a handful of data points - not much to go on. Second, the index references relatively illiquid markets - making any strategy based on it challenging to execute. Third, we expect divergences to increase as we get into the growing season when the corn market will likely look more toward supply for its direction. In short, we would not attempt to trade on this information without much more data, nor would we recommend anyone else does.
