Weekly Corn Market Update 02/17/23
December 2023 (Dec23) corn futures (the benchmark for 2023 corn production) finished the week lower by a quarter-cent (~0.04%), settling at $5.9575/bushel. This week's price action occurred in a 7.00-cent (~1.17%) range. This week's trading occurred within the unremarkable band we published last week.
Our corn demand index (CDI) underperformed Dec23 corn futures this week - falling 1.07%. The war in Ukraine, executive branch policy, increasing tensions with China, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and the Dollar remain concerns. Growing tensions with China remain on our minds this week. While still a slight possibility, recent events notably increase the probability of another trade war with China.
Depending on one's perspective, Dec23 corn futures remain in either a long-term uptrend originating from the spring lows of 2020 or a medium-term downtrend beginning from the spring 2022 highs. However, a comparatively small down move would break that long-term uptrend convincingly. We see technical levels below the market at around $5.84, $5.63, $5.46, $5.14, $4.98, $4.83, $4.63, and $4.20/bushel. We see technical levels above the market at around $6.03, $6.14, $6.31, $6.55, and $6.78/bushel. Daily and weekly momentum indicators settled in neutral territory this week. Daily Bollinger Band Bandwidth narrowed slightly again this week. Carry spreads from Dec23 to Mar24, May24, and Jul24 finished the week essentially unchanged (the spread to May24 was down a tick). To say the Dec23 technicals remain murky is an understatement.
Our at-the-money model volatilities for the 2023 crop finished lower this week. Option volatilities remain cheaper than a year ago, especially in near-term, short-dated new crop options. We are opportunistically looking to add these to our client portfolios. See the charts below for more details. One compares our closing at-the-money model volatilities for this week and last. The other compares our current model volatilities with the forward volatilities they imply between consecutive expirations.
For next week's holiday-shortened trading in Dec23 corn futures, we consider trade in the $5.8550-$6.0525 per bushel range unremarkable. Notable moves extend to the $5.6400-$6.2650 per bushel range. Price action beyond that would be extreme. Be sure to visit our Twitter page to vote in the poll we typically hold there each week. While you are there, please give us a follow.
The spring crop insurance price continued its discovery period this week. With 68.42% of observations accumulated, the average is currently 5.9535/bushel. For the fall crop insurance price, we see a median of $5.7475/bushel with a mode between $5.45 and $5.50/bushel. See the crop insurance charts below.
This week, we made no group trades for our Quartzite Precision Marketing customers in the 2023 crop. We rolled part of an old-crop futures hedge into the 2023 crop for one customer with limited access to the forward cash market. Many other clients continue to make small regular cash sales to balance their overall risk profiles.
We are still finalizing the 2023 client roster for our Quartzite Precision Marketing program. We still have a few spots left, so if you're interested in working with us for the 2023 growing season, reach out.
#AgTwitter & #oatt - cast your vote in this week's poll, then click over to read our Weekly #Corn #Market Update:https://t.co/iIMFwRe5rd
— Quartzite Risk Management LLC (@QuartziteRMLLC) February 18, 2023
We think these scenarios have roughly equal probability next week. Where do you think #cbot Dec23 corn #futures will settle next week?
Thanks for taking the time to read. We look forward to your questions and feedback. Thanks again.
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Weekly Price Levels and Corn Demand Index
As a reminder, the Quartzite Risk Management Corn Demand Index references the weekly change in April 2024 futures for Crude Oil, Live Cattle and Lean Hogs. We weigh the percentage change in those contracts and compute the index's percentage change. Crude Oil accounts for 50% of the index, and Live Cattle and Lean Hogs each make up 25%. To create the chart, we started the index at the Dec23 corn futures settlement on 11/04/22; then added or subtracted the index's weekly percentage change. We want to add a few warnings. First, there are only a handful of data points - not much to go on. Second, the index references relatively illiquid markets - making any strategy based on it challenging to execute. Third, we expect divergences to increase as we get into the growing season when the corn market will likely look more toward supply for its direction. In short, we would not attempt to trade on this information without much more data, nor would we recommend anyone else does.
