Looking ahead to next week, we see a ~51.4% chance that Dec20 corn futures will finish the week higher. We'd consider movement within the $3.2375-$3.4750 per bushel range to be unremarkable. Noteworthy moves would extend to the $3.0400-$3.6700 per bushel range. Price action beyond that would be considered extreme.

December 2020 (Dec20) corn futures (the benchmark for new-crop corn) finished the week unchanged, settling at $3.3675/bushel for the second straight week while trading in a 12.25-cent range (~3.64%). All of this week's trading took place within the unremarkable price band we published last week.

Looking further ahead to the Fall 2020 Crop Insurance Price (the average settlement of Dec20 corn futures in October), we believe there is a ~55.4% chance the average will come in below this week's settlement of $3.3675/bushel for Dec20 corn futures. We continue to see a higher chance (~26.3%) that the October average will come in below $3.00/bushel rather than above $4.00/bushel (~11.2%). This week's price action shifted our overall expectations lower, though the increases in implied volatility noted above also widened the distribution slightly. Of note, we now see a greater than 5% chance the average could settle below $2.5000/bushel.

Looking ahead to the Fall 2020 Crop Insurance Price (the average settlement of Dec20 corn futures in October), we believe there is a ~56% chance the average will come in below this week's settlement of $3.4350/bushel for Dec20 corn futures. We now see a considerably higher chance (about 23.4%) that the October average will come in below $3.00/bushel rather than above $4.00/bushel (about 14.4%).

Of note, for the first time this season, we see a marginally higher chance (about 18.4%) that the October average will come in below $3.00/bushel rather than above $4.00/bushel (about 17.5%). See the attached chart for a distribution of expectations.